Compared to most other developed nations, it has to be said that Australia has been dragging its feet in relation to policy, infrastructure and incentives, both regulatory (for example, additional axle mass, vehicle access, etc) and financial (for example, upfront government rebates to purchase a new low or zero-emission truck).
China, Europe and the USA have put in place substantial government measures to encourage the uptake of commercial vehicles that offer significant carbon abatement in the heavy vehicle road transport sector.
So where does that leave Australia and how are we fairing in the global truck decarbonisation race?
Well not as bad as the lack of government assistance might suggest.
In September 2024 BloombergNEF released a significant report that looks at the global uptake of zero-emission commercial vehicles.
The report titled Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles – The Time is Now, was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, in partnership with Smart Freight Centre of the Netherlands.
The Bloomberg report detailed that zero-emission truck sales were close to 38,000 units globally in the first half of 2024 and are set to be just over 1.5 per cent of total sales in 2024.
At the end of June 2024, the Truck Industry Council’s (TIC) T-Mark new truck sales data showed that low and zero-emission truck and heavy van sales in Australia were tracking at 1.0 per cent, up 61 per cent over sales to the same point in 2023.
Those global average and Australian sales look modest when compared to the 2024 zero-emission commercial vehicle sales in China, with Bloomberg reporting those Chinese sales account for more than 80 per cent of global volume, with new commercial vehicle adoption approaching 5.5 per cent in the first half of 2024.
In Europe, sales are concentrated in a handful of countries, particularly, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Germany.
While the US market shows only limited market growth, with zero-emission truck sales amounting to just 0.22 per cent of total sales in the first two quarters of 2024.
The European Union (EU) currently has the toughest CO₂ emissions reduction limits for medium-and heavy-duty trucks. The EU regulations set progressively lower targets for the output of new commercial vehicles sold in the European Union countries, built on 2019 baseline emission levels.
To meet these targets truck manufacturers in Europe will need to ensure approximately one third of their new vehicle sales will be zero-emission by 2030, increasing to over 85 per cent of sales if they are to meet the current European targets set for 2040.
Significant, per vehicle, financial penalties are set to apply to those manufacturers who fall short of these mandated abatement limits.
Currently these CO₂ emission targets are set as tailpipe emissions, however the European Union is planning a review in 2027 of both these emission limits and whether lifecycle emissions regulations should be considered in the future.
By comparison the USA, whilst having a national target of 15-53 per cent lower tailpipe emissions from 2027 to 2032, has a more fragmented approach, that is largely state based.
Unsurprisingly, California has set the most ambitious abatement targets, setting minimum zero-emission sales percentages, rather than specific CO₂ emissions reduction limits. A 55-75 per cent zero-emission sales share for commercial vehicle manufactures by 2035.
With some fleet segments, for example school busses, needing to attain 100 per cent zero-emission sales.
TIC notes that in the absence of CO₂ emissions reduction mandates, current Australian low and zero-emission truck and heavy van sales trail only slightly the global average. TIC also notes that this is occurring largely in the absence of Australian government emission reduction incentives for the road freight transport sector.
In the global markets of China, Europe and the USA, substantial government incentives are currently on offer, and this will aid the transition to the abatement targets that those regions have set.
The Australian road freight sector cannot be expected to deliver similar CO₂ abatement, as those countries detailed above, without equivalent governmental assistance.
The Truck Industry Council calls upon all levels of Australian government to reduce the regulatory barriers that currently exist (for example, the lack of axle mass compensation for low and zero-emission trucks) and deliver financial incentives to offset the cost of purchasing a new low and zero-emission heavy commercial vehicle.
Tony McMullan CEO, Truck Industry Council
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